Insecthost relationships influencing disturbance by the spruce budworm in a boreal mixedwood forest
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Demographic data from a 15-year outbreak of the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), in a boreal mixedwood forest in Ontario, Canada, are used to interpret stand-level ecological disturbance in terms of susceptibility and vulnerability (mortality) of balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.), white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss), and black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP). All three host-tree species are highly susceptible for oviposition by the spruce budworm and all are suitable for completion of the budworm life cycle. Host-related differences in susceptibility arise from the degree of synchrony between spruce budworm phenology during the feeding stages and host-tree phenology. Spruce budworm density was highest on white spruce throughout the budworm's life cycle and over the course of the outbreak, but more rapid flushing and growth of current-year buds in white spruce reduced damage relative to that on balsam fir. Conversely, later flushing of current-year buds on black spruce led to a reduction in budworm density early in the season and a corresponding reduction in defoliation. The combination of high budworm densities and severe defoliation caused mortality first on balsam fir. By the end of the outbreak, 89% of the balsam fir component >10 cm DBH was eliminated compared with 49% of the white spruce in the same size class. The lower susceptibility of black spruce resulted in survival of all but the smallest size classes of that species. Nonhost species such as trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) nearly doubled their basal area during the outbreak. The results link processes inherent in the insecthost relationship with the population ecology of the insect and the disturbance ecology of the forest.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".