Bibliographic record
Abstract
The astonishing increase in computer performance over the past two decades has made it possible for economists to base many statistical inferences on simulated, or bootstrap, distributions rather than on distributions obtained from asymptotic theory. In this paper, I review some of the basic ideas of bootstrap inference. I discuss Monte Carlo tests, several types of bootstrap test, and bootstrap confidence intervals. Although bootstrapping often works well, it does not do so in every case. Inférence par la méthode d’auto–amorçage (bootstrap) en économétrie. L’incroyable accroissement dans la puissance des ordinateurs au cours des deux dernières décennies a permis aux économistes de fonder plusieurs inférences sur des distributions simulées, ou obtenues par auto–amorçage, plutôt que sur des distributions obtenues par la théorie aymptotique. Dans ce texte, l’auteur passe en revue quelques–unes des idées de base de l’inférence par la méthode d’auto–amorçage. Le texte discute aussi des tests de Monte Carlo, de divers types de tests et des intervalles de confiance obtenus par la méthode d’auto–amorçage. Même si le processus d’auto–amorçage fonctionne souvent bien, cela n’est pas toujours le cas.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.027 | 0.112 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.005 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".