The U.S. Presidential Election of 1948: The Causes of Truman’s “Astonishing” Victory
Bibliographic record
Abstract
RésuméNovembre 1998 a marqué aux États-Unis le 50e anniversaire de la fameuse élection présidentielle de 1948 par laquelle le démocrate Harry S. Truman, à la grande surprise des instituts de sondage et d’une myriade d’analystes politiques, l’emportait sur le candidat républicain Thomas E. Dewey. Plusieurs interprétations ont été avancées par les historiens pour expliquer ce résultat « inattendu » qui, au dire de certains, devait s’avérer lourd de conséquences. Le présent article, reposant en partie sur des sources d’époque, vise essentiellement à montrer, quelque 50 ans plus tard, que le « miracle de 1948 » n’apparaît nullement comme un accident et que la victoire démocrate trouve sa source dans une combinaison de facteurs. Parmi ces derniers figurent notamment l’habile stratégie de reconstitution de la coalition du New Deal déployée par Truman, la personnalité des deux principaux candidats en lice et le contexte international plutôt avantageux.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".