Season of infectious mononucleosis and risk of multiple sclerosis at different latitudes; the EnvIMS Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Seasonal fluctuations in solar radiation and vitamin D levels could modulate the immune response against Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection and influence the subsequent risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: Altogether 1660 MS patients and 3050 controls from Norway and Italy participating in the multinational case-control study of Environmental Factors In Multiple Sclerosis (EnvIMS) reported season of past infectious mononucleosis (IM). RESULTS: IM was generally reported more frequently in Norway (p=0.002), but was associated with MS to a similar degree in Norway (odds ratio (OR) 2.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.64-2.73) and Italy (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.17-2.52). For all participants, there was a higher reported frequency of IM during spring compared to fall (p<0.0005). Stratified by season of IM, the ORs for MS were 1.58 in spring (95% CI 1.08-2.31), 2.26 in summer (95% CI 1.46-3.51), 2.86 in fall (95% CI 1.69-4.85) and 2.30 in winter (95% CI 1.45-3.66). CONCLUSIONS: IM is associated with MS independently of season, and the association is not stronger for IM during spring, when vitamin D levels reach nadir. The distribution of IM may point towards a correlation with solar radiation or other factors with a similar latitudinal and seasonal variation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".