The Tragedy of Unpersuasive Power: The Convention on Biological Diversity as Exemplary
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The complement to “The Tragedy of the Commons” is “The Tragedy of Unpersuasive Power.” A class of problems exists for which technical solutions go unheeded. Logic and evidence do not prevail. Nevertheless, the fallacies and rhetoric do make sense in the light of human evolution as eusocial: groupthink is the consequence of group selection. Exemplary of the class of problems is “access to genetic resources [and] the fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from the utilization of genetic resources,” (ABS) of the 1993 United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). Capacious language in the 2010 Nagoya Protocol on ABS has immortalized contentious issues which could have been resolved through the economics of information, elaborated since 1992. The online discussion groups of the ABS Clearing House afford a natural experiment to test the tragedy. The solution is “delegated delegation” driven by a quest for legacy by the leadership.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.009 | 0.015 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.014 | 0.038 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.015 | 0.012 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.009 |
| Research integrity | 0.009 | 0.013 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".