Risk of ischaemic stroke according to pattern of atrial fibrillation: analysis of 6563 aspirin-treated patients in ACTIVE-A and AVERROES
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
AIMS: The pattern of atrial fibrillation (AF) occurrence-paroxysmal, persistent, or permanent-is associated with progressive stages of atrial dysfunction and structural changes and may therefore be associated with progressively higher stroke risk. However, previous studies have not consistently shown AF pattern to predict stroke but have been hampered by methodological shortcomings of low power, variable event ascertainment, and variable anticoagulant use. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed the rates of stroke and systemic embolism in 6563 aspirin-treated patients with AF from the ACTIVE-A/AVERROES databases. There was thorough searching for events and adjudication. Multivariable analyses were performed with the adjustment for known risk factors for stroke. Mean age of patients with paroxysmal, persistent, and permanent AF was 69.0 ± 9.9, 68.6 ± 10.2, and 71.9 ± 9.8 years (P < 0.001). The CHA2DS2-VASc score was similar in patients with paroxysmal and persistent AF (3.1 ± 1.4), but was higher in patients with permanent AF (3.6 ± 1.5, P < 0.001). Yearly ischaemic stroke rates were 2.1, 3.0, and 4.2% for paroxysmal, persistent, and permanent AF, respectively, with adjusted hazard ratio of 1.83 (P < 0.001) for permanent vs. paroxysmal and 1.44 (P = 0.02) for persistent vs. paroxysmal. Multivariable analysis identified age ≥ 75 year, sex, history of stroke or TIA, and AF pattern as independent predictors of stroke, with AF pattern being the second strongest predictor after prior stroke or TIA. CONCLUSION: In a large population of non-anticoagulated AF patients, pattern of AF was a strong independent predictor of stroke risk and may be helpful to assess the risk/benefit for anticoagulant therapy, especially in lower risk patients.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it