Uniformization for sampling realizations of Markov processes: applications to Bayesian implementations of codon substitution models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
MOTIVATION: Mapping character state changes over phylogenetic trees is central to the study of evolution. However, current probabilistic methods for generating such mappings are ill-suited to certain types of evolutionary models, in particular, the widely used models of codon substitution. RESULTS: We describe a general method, based on a uniformization technique, which can be utilized to generate realizations of a Markovian substitution process conditional on an alignment of character states and a given tree topology. The method is applicable under a wide range of evolutionary models, and to illustrate its usefulness in practice, we embed it within a data augmentation-based Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, for approximating posterior distributions under previously proposed codon substitution models. The sampler is found to be more efficient than the conventional pruning-based sampler with the decorrelation times between draws from the posterior reduced by a factor of 20 or more.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".