MRI prognostic factors for relapse after acute CNS inflammatory demyelination in childhood
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The prognostic factors for relapse of the initial MRI findings after a first episode of acute CNS inflammatory demyelination are unclear in children. In this study we aimed to identify initial MRI factors that are predictive of a second attack and disability after a first episode of acute CNS inflammatory demyelination in childhood. A cohort of 116 children who had a first episode of acute CNS inflammatory demyelination between 1990 and 2002 was studied using survival analysis methods. The initial MRI data were reviewed in a systematic, standardized, double-blind manner. The average follow-up was 4.9 +/- 3 years. Multivariate analysis showed that the rate of second attack was higher in patients with corpus callosum long axis perpendicular lesions (34 out of 116 patients, 30%) on the initial MRI [hazard ratio (HR) 2.89; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.65-5.06] and/or with the sole presence of well-defined lesions (46 out of 116 patients, 40%) (HR 1.71; 95% CI 1.29-2.27). Both criteria were more specific predictors (100%) of relapse, demonstrating conversion to multiple sclerosis, than the three Barkhof criteria (63%), but were less sensitive (21% compared with 52%). None of the MRI criteria was predictive of severe disability. Using initial MRI and survival analysis methods, we identified two specific predictors of relapse and conversion to multiple sclerosis after a first episode of acute CNS inflammatory demyelination in childhood. Their low sensitivity, however, shows that this prediction remains difficult.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it