The sensitivity of hurricane frequency to ITCZ changes and radiatively forced warming in aquaplanet simulations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The response of hurricane frequency to climate changes in an aquaplanet configuration of a 50‐km resolution atmospheric general circulation model is examined. The lower boundary condition is an energetically consistent slab ocean with a prescribed cross‐equatorial ocean heat flux, which breaks the hemispheric symmetry and moves the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) off the equator. In this idealized configuration, hurricane frequency increases in response to radiatively forced warming. The ITCZ shifts poleward when the model is warmed with fixed cross‐equatorial ocean heat flux, and it is argued that the increase in hurricane frequency results from this poleward shift. Varying the imposed cross‐equatorial ocean heat flux amplitude with fixed radiative forcing can isolate the effect of ITCZ shifts. If an increase in radiative forcing is accompanied by a reduction in the ocean heat flux amplitude such that the position of the ITCZ is unchanged, the simulated hurricane frequency decreases under warmed conditions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".