Serological analysis of a cryptosporidiosis epidemic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: A cryptosporidiosis epidemic occurred among residents and visitors to Collingwood, Ontario, during March 1996. Fifty-five per cent of 36 confirmed cases were Collingwood visitors and 57% of Collingwood resident cases were under 10 years of age. The low level of reported diarrhoeal illness among adult Collingwood residents caused government officials and physicians to question whether an epidemic had occurred in Collingwood. METHODS: To better evaluate the extent of the epidemic, anonymous surplus sera from 89 adult Collingwood residents, collected for routine tests prior to, during and after the epidemic, and from 80 adult Toronto residents were tested using a Western blot assay for IgG antibody response to two Cryptosporidium antigen groups (15/17-kDa and 27-kDa). RESULTS: For sera collected from 1 January 1996 to 17 June 1996, a higher fraction of Collingwood residents had a detectable serological response (P < 0.002) and the mean intensity of serological responses was higher for Collingwood than Toronto residents (P < 0.001). The mean intensity of serological responses for Collingwood residents was higher in specimens drawn during the 8 weeks following the initial case reports compared to those drawn before or after this period (15/17-kDa, P < 0.02; 27-kDa, P < 0.10). CONCLUSIONS: These elevated serological responses indicate that Cryptosporidium infections among Collingwood residents likely occurred more commonly than illness reports suggested, consistent with a community-wide cryptosporidiosis epidemic. Similar studies should be considered in future suspected cryptosporidiosis epidemic investigations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".