An experimental test of the independent action hypothesis in virus–insect pathosystems
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The 'independent action hypothesis' (IAH) states that each pathogen individual has a non-zero probability of causing host death and that pathogen individuals act independently. IAH has not been rigorously tested. In this paper, we (i) develop a probabilistic framework for testing IAH and (ii) demonstrate that, in two out of the six virus-insect pathosystems tested, IAH is supported by the data. We first show that IAH inextricably links host survivorship to the number of infecting pathogen individuals, and develop a model to predict the frequency of single- and dual-genotype infections when a host is challenged with a mixture of two genotypes. Model predictions were tested using genetically marked, near-identical baculovirus genotypes, and insect larvae from three host species differing in susceptibility. Observations in early-instar larvae of two susceptible host species support IAH, but observations in late-instar larvae of susceptible host species and larvae of a less susceptible host species were not in agreement with IAH. Hence the model is experimentally supported only in pathosystems in which the host is highly susceptible. We provide, to our knowledge, the first qualitative experimental evidence that, in such pathosystems, the action of a single virion is sufficient to cause disease.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it