P1-S1.13 Heterogeneity of the HIV epidemic in the general population of Karnataka state, India
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background In the context of AVAHAN—The India AIDS Initiative of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, general population surveys (GPS) have been carried out in three Karnataka districts in India. Given the north-south gradient already observed in HIV prevalence in antenatal population in Karnataka districts, we analysed data from three such surveys to detect heterogeneity. The three districts analysed here are Belgaum (Northern Karnataka), Bellary (middle of the state) and Mysore (Southern Karnataka). Methods We conducted a comparative analysis of these three GPS conducted between 2005 and 2007. Subjects were selected using a two-stage cluster sampling design with equal number of rural and urban participants, and of men and women, with a target sample size of 6000 per district. Questionnaires on socio-demographic factors and HIV risk behaviour were administered. Blood samples were tested for HIV, syphilis and HSV-2 antibodies, whereas urine samples were tested for gonorrhoea and chlamydia using nucleic acid amplification tests. A descriptive analysis of prevalence of HIV and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) was conducted according to age, district and place of residence (rural/urban). Results Abstract P1-S1.13 table 1 shows HIV prevalence per district according to gender and place of residence. Belgaum had the highest overall HIV and HSV-2 prevalence (16.9%) and the lowest prevalence of curable STIs (Chlamydia—0.38%; Syphilis—0.42%) among the three districts. Women in Belgaum had a higher HIV prevalence (OR=2.16, 95% CI—1.02 to 4.58) compared to women in Mysore. The HIV epidemic in Belgaum is predominantly rural and among women. In Bellary, it is predominantly urban and among men. Mysore had the lowest prevalence of HIV and HSV-2 (10.9%) and the highest prevalence of curable STIs (Chlamydia—1.05%; Syphilis—1.38%) among the three districts. There were only six cases of gonorrhoea in total (five in Mysore and one in Bellary). Abstract P1-S1.13 Table 1 Gender specific prevalence of HIV by district and place of residence Place of residence Belgaum % (95% CI) Bellary % (95% CI) Mysore % (95% CI) All total 1.43 (0.86 to 2.01) 1.18 (0.74 to 1.62) 0.80 (0.50 to 1.09) Males 1.28 (0.51 to 2.06) 1.24 (0.70 to 1.78) 0.98 (0.45 to 1.52) Females 1.58 (0.94 to 2.23) 1.13 (0.59 to 1.66) 0.65 (0.28 to 1.02) Urban total 0.63 (0.18 to 1.09) 1.36 (0.65 to 2.07) 0.94 (0.49 to 1.39) Urban males 0.69 (0.25 to 1.12) 1.64 (0.71 to 2.56) 1.06 (0.35 to 1.78) Urban females 0.58 (0.00 to 1.16) 1.12 (0.37 to 1.86) 0.84 (0.34 to 1.35) Rural total 1.69 (0.90 to 2.49) 1.05 (0.46 to 1.64) 0.71 (0.31 to 1.10) Rural males 1.48 (0.41 to 2.55) 0.97 (0.29 to 1.65) 0.93 (0.13 to 1.74) Rural females 1.90 (1.01 to 2.79) 1.13 (0.34 to 1.93) 0.51 (0.00 to 1.05) *All figures in weighted percentages, 95% CI. Conclusion The HIV epidemic in Karnataka shows considerable heterogeneity. This analysis validates the observed north-south gradient. The sex work structure in these three districts might explain the heterogeneity of the HIV epidemic in these three districts. Higher prevalence of HIV and HSV-2 and lower prevalence of curable STIs in Belgaum suggests a late epidemic phase. Mysore may have an early phase epidemic with higher prevalence of curable STIs.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".