NEW HYPOTHESIS HELPS EXPLAIN ELASMOBRANCH “OUTBURST” ON GEORGES BANK IN THE 1980s
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Regime shifts are a feature of many ecosystems. During the last 40 years, intensive commercial exploitation and environmental changes have driven substantial shifts in ecosystem structure and function in the northwest Atlantic. In the Georges Bank-southern New England region, commercially important species have declined, and the ecosystem shifted to one dominated by economically undesirable species such as skates and dogfish. Aggregated abundance indices indicate a large increase of small and medium-sized elasmobranchs in the early 1980s following the decline of many commercial species. It has been hypothesized that ecological interactions such as competition and predation within the Georges Bank region were responsible for and are maintaining the "elasmobranch outburst" at the heart of the observed ecosystem shift. We offer an alternative hypothesis invoking population connectivity among winter skate populations such that the observed abundance increase is a result of migratory dynamics, perhaps with the Scotian Shelf (i.e., it is an open population). Here we critically evaluate the survey data for winter skate, the species principally responsible for the increase in total skate abundance during the 1980s on Georges Bank, to assess support for both hypotheses. We show that time series from different surveys within the Georges Bank region exhibit low coherence, indicating that a widespread population increase was not consistently shown by all surveys. Further, we argue that observed length-frequency data for Georges Bank indicate biologically unrealistic population fluctuations if the population is closed. Neither finding supports the elasmobranch outburst hypothesis. In contrast, survey time series for Georges Bank and the Scotian Shelf are negatively correlated, in support of the population connectivity hypothesis. Further, we argue that understanding the mechanisms of ecosystem state changes and population connectivity are needed to make inferences about both the causes and appropriate management responses to large-scale system change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".