GCM projections for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation under greenhouse forcing for the early 21st century
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The climatology and hydrology of western North America display strong periodic cycles which are correlated with the low‐frequency Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO's signature is seen throughout the entire North Pacific region, with related significant associations to hydrology and ecology in western North America and northeastern Asia. Therefore, the status of the PDO in a warmer world caused by anthropogenic climate change is of great interest. We developed early 21st‐century projections of the PDO, using data from archived runs of the most recent high‐resolution global climate models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). Because of the geographical adjacency and hypothesized interactions between the PDO and the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and between the PDO and the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO), we also developed concurrent projections of ENSO and the NAO and examined their relationships with the projected PDO. For the B1, A1B and A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) emission scenarios, the PDO projections for 2000–2050 showed a weak multi‐model mean shift towards more occurrences of the negative phase PDO, which becomes statistically significant for the time period 2000–2099. However, not all the models showed a consistent shift to negative PDO conditions. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".