A spatiotemporal pattern analysis of historical mountain pine beetle outbreaks in British Columbia, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study documents the spatiotemporal patterns of mountain pine beetle infestations by applying a novel approach based on a landscape infestation dynamics conceptual model in combination with morphological spatial pattern analysis using the mountain pine beetle infested pine mortality data (1960–2010) collected by the annual British Columbia aerial overview survey. The pattern analysis at the provincial level reveals that the 1980s outbreak did not crash as originally thought. The current outbreak is most likely a result of the progressive buildup of the epidemic infestations during the transition period (1985–1995) under favourable weather conditions and substantially improved host resources. This is also true for the Northeast and Cariboo areas of the province specifically, even though the infestations in the Cariboo area remained at incipient‐epidemic levels during the transition period after the 1980s outbreak crashed in 1985. In the Southeast area, the current outbreak apparently continued from the outbreak that initiated in the late 1970s and early 1980s. The 1980s outbreak originated from multiple spatially separate locations whereas the current outbreak initiated from a single location in Tweedsmuir Provincial Park. The centralized and self‐amplifying buildup of the current outbreak implicates at least three substantial expansions that occurred in 2002, 2006, and 2008. This study suggests that at the provincial level, as well as for the Northeast and Southeast areas of the province, the current outbreak is declining but most likely will continue for many years given the ongoing and future warming climate and a large proportion of pines that remain in the habitats of mountain pine beetles. This study also suggests that dispersals, particularly long‐distance dispersal, may play a key role in driving the spread and expansion of the current outbreak although uncertainty remains due to the local dynamics of the beetle populations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".