TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF BROAD-WINGED HAWK MIGRATION AT MONTCLAIR HAWK LOOKOUT, NEW JERSEY, AND HAWK MOUNTAIN SANCTUARY, PENNSYLVANIA
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Broad-winged Hawk (Buteo platypterus) breeds in eastern and central Canada and the United States, and winters in Central America and northern and central South America. Birders and ornithologists count migrating Broad-winged Hawks at dozens of traditional watch sites throughout the northeastern United States. We modeled counts of migrating Broad-winged Hawks from two raptor migration watch sites: Montclair Hawk Lookout, New Jersey, and Hawk Mountain Sanctuary, Pennsylvania, to determine whether annual abundance and trend estimates from individual sites within the mid-Atlantic states are representative of the region as a whole. We restricted ourselves to counts made between 10:00 and 16:00 EST during September to standardize count effort between sites. We created one model set for annual counts and another model set for daily counts. When modeling daily counts we incorporated weather and identity of individual observers. Akaike’s Information Criteria were used to select the best model from an initial set of competing models. Annual counts declined at both sites during 1979–1998. Broad-winged Hawk migration began, peaked, and ended later at Montclair than at Hawk Mountain, even though Hawk Mountain is 155 km west-southwest of Montclair. Mean annual counts of hawks at Montclair were more than twice those at Hawk Mountain, but were not correlated. Broad-winged Hawks counted at Montclair may not be the same birds as those counted at Hawk Mountain. Rather, the two sites may be monitoring different regional subpopulations. Broad-winged Hawks counted at the two sites may use different migration tactics, with those counted at Hawk Mountain being more likely to slope soar, and those at Montclair more likely to use thermal soaring. A system of multiple watch sites is needed to monitor various breeding populations of this widely dispersed migrant.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".