Stability of diagnostic assessment for autism spectrum disorder between 18 and 36 months in a high‐risk cohort
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are diagnosed, on average, around the age of 4 years. However, previous research has shown that the diagnosis can be made as early as 2 years, and that if the child is seen a year or more later, it is highly likely that the diagnosis will be confirmed. In this study, to examine whether diagnoses made as early as 18 months of age are also "stable," we followed a group of younger siblings of children with ASD (who are known to be at higher risk). We also examined whether the age of ASD diagnosis within this high-risk group was related to the severity of children's ASD symptoms or developmental delays. Participants (n = 381) were seen at three ages: 18 months, 24 months, and 3 years. ASD symptoms, general development, and adaptive functioning were assessed at each time point. Twenty-three children were diagnosed with ASD at 18 months and a total of 61 at 24 months. Of these diagnoses, 19/23 (82.6%) and 56/61 (91.8%), respectively, were confirmed independently at 3 years. However, 45 children were diagnosed with ASD at 3 years who had not been identified at earlier visits. Children diagnosed at 18 months, in comparison to those diagnosed at 24 months, had less advanced language and adaptive skills at 18 months. Children not diagnosed with ASD until 3 years, compared with those diagnosed earlier, had more advanced language and adaptive skills, and milder ASD symptoms. Autism Res 2016, 9: 790-800. © 2015 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".