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Record W217572539

Social Security and the Stock Market: How the Pursuit of Market Magic Shapes the System

2008· article· en· W217572539 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Roland Eisen

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Risk & Insurance · 2008
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldBusiness, Management and Accounting
TopicFinancial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsSocial securityEconomicsRevenueEquity (law)FinancePublic economicsPolitical scienceMarket economyLaw
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Social Security and the Stock Market: How the Pursuit of Market Magic Shapes the System, edited by A. H. Munnell and S. A. Sass, 2006, Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, ix + 171 pages Reviewer: Roland Eisen, Goethe University, Germany This is timely and most interesting book about Social security reform strategies, discussed in the mid-1990s when the 1994-1996 Social security Advisory Council (SSAC) attempted to fix the of closing the funding deficit in the United States. At that time, the SSAC was caught in trilemma. Should it attempt to restore balance by raising taxes and/or cutting benefits only, or by resorting to new source of revenue, the higher expected return on equity investment? In the Introduction, the authors very clearly state the focus of their book: to examine the use of equities may help solve the Social security financing problem, while being aware of a host of new and difficult challenges which could dramatically change the structure of Social security in the United (p. 2). The second chapter provides short history of the creation of modern retirement income systems, pointing to the difference between the Bismarckian programs of the nations on the European continent1 and the Anglo-Saxon models. It is clear from the beginning that the book deals with reform strategies for these latter models, even when it is obvious that all nations face the common challenge of how best to maintain the poverty reduction and income smoothing achievements of current system(s) while minimizing burdens on the active population (p. 40). The third chapter describes the evolution of the U.S. public and employer-sponsored retirement system since 1980, the reforms undertaken since that time, and the problems still ahead. The authors mention the three primary options for reforming the U.S. Social security program, as put on the table by the SSAC: investing portion of fund assets in equities, adopting add-on individual accounts invested in equities, and using carve-out individual accounts invested in equities, redirecting significant portion of current payroll taxes while sharply reducing the guaranteed social insurance benefit (cf. p. 63). In addition to political considerations (i.e., which political group prefers which options), practical considerations should also influence the equity decision, for example, an increased role for equities may shape the current retirement income system, incorporating equities may affect the cost of administering programs, and to deal with the increased risk in equity investment. The authors stress, correctly in my opinion, the risk management side. As the experience of employer defined-benefit pension plans clearly shows, the risk that comes with equity can radically upset retirement income program (p. 64). Furthermore, the radical shift from defined-benefit to defined-contribution plans (in the sense of 401 (k)s) also has placed more risk on the shoulders of individual employees. To shed more light on the equity proposals noted above, in the next three chapters the authors explore the experience of (three) countries that have systems like that of the United States and have introduced equities into their public pension system in each of these three ways (p. 128). They examine the United Kingdom's use of carving-out individual accounts; Australia's mandated add-on individual account approach; and Canada's introduction of equity investments using the trust fund investment approach. The authors note that Britain's decision to sharply cut out social insurance programs and increase reliance on individual initiatives has returned the nation to welfarebased solution to the old-age income problem (p. …

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.003
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.036
Threshold uncertainty score0.678

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0030.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.011
GPT teacher head0.204
Teacher spread0.193 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2008
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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