Using Degree-Day and Logistic Models to Predict Emergence Patterns and Seasonal Flights of the Cabbage Maggot and Seed Corn Maggot (Diptera: Anthomyiidae) in Canola
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Seasonal flight activity periods and emergence phenologies of the cabbage maggot, Delia radicum L., and the seedcorn maggot, Delia platura (Meigen), were studied from 2002 to 2004 in canola, Brassica rapa L. and Brassica napus L., in central Alberta, Canada, in relation to degree-days and Julian-days. D. radicum was univoltine in canola. Peak emergence occurred after an accumulation of 345.8 ± 79.4 DD, and 50% flight activity required accumulation of 324.5 ± 46.8 DD (soil base 4°C). D. platura was bivoltine in canola. Peak emergence of the first generation required 339.5 DD, and the second generation required 594.5 ± 38.9 DD (soil base 3.9°C). Peak flight activity occurred after accumulation of 255.0 ± 74.2 and 639.9 ± 69.4 DD for the first and second generations, respectively. A logistic model was used to describe the relationship of degree-days and Julian-days with emergence patterns of adult flies and predicted that 10, 50, and 95% emergence of D. radicum required 213.7 ± 39.9, 324.5 ± 46.8, and 467.2 ± 46.3 DD, respectively. Logistic analysis predicted that 50% emergence of the first generation of D. platura required an average of 255.0 ± 74.2 DD, and the second generation required 526.8 ± 66.6, 639.9 ± 69.4, and 952.8 ± 77.0 DD for 10, 50, and 95% emergence, respectively. Determination of the temporal patterns of abundance of D. radicum and D. platura has potential application for pest management because it can help ensure that phenologies of candidate agents for biocontrol are synchronous with those of the pests they are targeted to control.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".