The influence of forest composition and climate on outbreak characteristics of the spruce budworm in eastern Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clemens) is perhaps the single most important disturbance agent in Canada’s eastern forests. Climate and forest composition are dominant factors in spruce budworm outbreak dynamics through their direct influences on the pest, its natural enemies, and its hosts, and through their influence on the multitrophic interactions that are important in outbreak dynamics. A combination of four climate variables, three forest composition variables, and one location variable explained 60% of the multivariate variability in outbreak characteristics (duration and severity) in eastern Canada. Outbreak duration was most strongly influenced by April–May accumulation of degree-days; outbreak severity was most strongly influenced by the extreme maximum temperatures of April–May. The basal area of balsam fir had a stronger influence than that of black spruce on duration and on severity. Both outbreak characteristics declined in more northerly locations. Under a projected future (2011–2040) climate scenario the largest increases in outbreak duration and severity are predicted to occur on the Gaspé Peninsula and the north shore of the St. Lawrence River (Quebec). The largest decreases in duration and severity are predicted to occur in southern Ontario and along the Bay of Fundy in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. The predicted average change in outbreak duration is around –1.3 years. The predicted average change in outbreak severity is only slightly different from zero (around –1.5% defoliation).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".