The time horizon matters: results of an exploratory study varying the timeframe in time trade-off and standard gamble utility elicitation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to examine whether the time horizon of time trade-off (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) utility assessment influences utility scores and discrimination between health states. METHODS: In two phases, UK general population participants rated three osteoarthritis health states in TTO and SG procedures with two time horizons: (1) 10-year and (2) a time horizon derived from self-reported additional life expectancy (ALE). The two time horizons were compared in terms of mean utilities and discrimination among health states. RESULTS: In Phase 1, the 10-year tasks were completed by 80 participants, 35 of whom also completed utility assessment with the ALE. In Phase 2, all 101 participants completed procedures with both time horizons. Utility scores tended to be lower with the ALE than the 10-year, a difference that was statistically significant for two health states with SG in Phase 1 (P < 0.05), two health states with TTO in Phase 2 (P < 0.01), and one health state with SG in Phase 2 (P < 0.001). In Phase 1, rates of discrimination between mild and moderate osteoarthritis health states were significantly higher with the ALE than the 10-year (TTO: P = 0.03; SG: P = 0.001). This pattern of discrimination was similar in Phase 2. DISCUSSION: Results suggest that the time horizon could influence utility scores and discrimination among health states. When designing utility evaluations, researchers should carefully consider the time horizon so that the value of health states is accurately represented in cost-utility models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.145 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".