Degree-Day Model for Emergence of<i>Cerceris fumipennis</i>(Hymenoptera: Crabronidae) in Northeastern America Based on Field Observations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Cerceris fumipennis (Say, 1837) (Hymenoptera: Crabronidae) is a solitary ground-nesting wasp that uses adult buprestid beetles to provision nests. It is being used as a detection tool for the invasive buprestid, Agrilus planipennis F., the emerald ash borer. Modeling the degree days necessary for emergence of the wasp will aid in that effort. During 2010 and 2011, 27 and 23 soil temperature probes, respectively, were deployed at C. fumipennis colonies in three US states and Ontario, Canada. Sites were monitored daily for wasp emergence. Degree-day models were constructed using the soil temperature data from the probes and air temperature data available on the internet from nearby weather stations. Our base temperature for degree-day accumulation for C. fumipennis was 10°C. The average soil degree days needed for emergence was 696.2 ± 16.8. The average air degree days needed for emergence was 463.73 ± 14.01. To measure the performance of the air degree-day model, we tested the model against a set of 24 distinct sites for which emergence dates were known from 2010–2012. The average difference in date at which the predicted degree days were accumulated, and that at which wasps emerged at a site was−0.15 d, with a median value of 1 d. This provides a narrow window to monitor for emergence using readily available data, air temperature, which is more efficient and cost effective than driving to colonies weekly or daily to ascertain wasp activity.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".