Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this study, the potential predictability of the northern America (NA) surface air temperature was explored using information-based predictability framework and ENSEMBLE multiple model ensembles. The emphasis was put on the comparison between information-based and conventional SNR (signal-to noise ratio)-based potential predictability, and the optimal decomposition of predictable component using the method of maximizing the predictable information (or equivalent the maximum of SNR). It was found that the conventional SNR-based measure underestimates the potential predictability, in particular in these areas where the predictable signals are relatively weak. The most predictable components of the NA surface air temperature can be characterized by the interannual variability mode and the long term trend mode. The former is inherent to the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) forcing such as ENSO (El Nino and Southern Oscillation) whereas the latter is closely associated with the global warming. The amplitude of the two modes has geographical variations in different seasons. Furthermore, the possible physical mechanisms responsible for the two most predictable modes and the potential benefits for the improvement of actual prediction skill were discussed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.017 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".