Environmental risk from Lyme disease in central and eastern Canada: a summary of recent surveillance information
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vector-borne disease in the temperate world.It is emerging in central and eastern Canada due to spread of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis into and within Canada to form new areas of environmental risk known as Lyme disease-endemic areas.Identifying the geographic location of Lyme disease-endemic areas is important to identify the population at risk, target interventions, and inform the clinical diagnosis of Lyme disease patients.Objective: To provide an up-to-date picture of current and emerging areas of Lyme disease risk in eastern and central Canada by summarizing recent information on Lyme disease-endemic areas, and surveillance for I. scapularis ticks.Methods: Data on locations where I. scapularis have been found in field surveillance studies by a range of federal and provincial organizations were collated and mapped to obtain a fuller picture of the occurrence of I. scapularis in Canada.The geographic locations of ticks submitted in passive tick surveillance were mapped for comparison.Results: The number of confirmed Lyme disease-endemic areas in southern Manitoba, southern and eastern Ontario, southern Quebec, southern New Brunswick and in some locations in Nova Scotia increased from 10 in 2009 to 22 confirmed endemic areas in 2012.The collated field surveillance data indicated that I. scapularis tick populations and Lyme disease risk are more geographically widespread than known Lyme disease-endemic areas and that the pattern of emergence of tick populations varies among provinces.There was a tenfold increase in the numbers of I. scapularis reported for passive surveillance from 2 059 submissions from 1990 to 2003 to 25 738 submissions from 2004 to 2012. Conclusions:The increasing numbers of Lyme disease-endemic areas, the much wider distribution of tick populations identified by field surveillance, as well as the marked increase in numbers of ticks identified through passive surveillance suggest that the geographic scope of environmental risk of acquiring Lyme disease is expanding in central and eastern Canada, although here it still remains mostly limited to the southern parts of five provinces.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.007 | 0.015 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".