Exposure maps: removing reliance on attribution during scan detection
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Current scanning detection algorithms are based on an underlying assumption that scanning activity can be attributed to a meaningful specific source (i.e. the root cause or scan controller). Sophisticated scanning activity including the use of botnets, idle scanning, and throwaway systems violates this assumption. We propose a class of scanning detection algorithms that focus on what is being scanned for instead of who is performing the scanning. We pursue this idea, introduce the concept of exposuremaps, and report on a preliminary proof-of-concept that allows one to: (1) estimate the information or exposures revealed to an adversary as a result of scanning activity; (2) detect sophisticated or targeted scanning activity with a footprint as low as a single packet or event; and (3) discover real-time changes in network exposures that may be indicative of a successful attack.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.062 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.011 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".