The Effects of Global and Regional Shocks on Asian Business Cycle Synchronization
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper studies the evolution of the degree of Asian business cycle synchronization and assesses the impact of global and regional shocks on output interdependence across Asia since the 1990s. We employ a dynamic factor model to decompose output fluctuations into a global factor common to all countries in our sample, regional factors that capture any remaining common fluctuations across countries within each region, and an idiosyncratic component that captures country-specific characteristics. In particular, we categorize the 19 countries in our sample into four groups -- non-Asia, East Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia, thereby accounting for heterogeneous dynamics of sub-regional co-movement. Results show that, over the past two decades, global shocks and regional shocks are playing a critical role in determining Asian output synchronization. As the process of globalization has picked up, both shocks increasingly explain the co-movement of output, which leads to a higher degree of business cycle synchronicity across Asia.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it