Onset of tropospheric circulation anomalies during Stratospheric Vortex Weakening events: the role of planetary-scale waves
Bibliographic record
Abstract
While mounting evidence links the deceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex during Stratospheric Vortex Weakening (SVW) events to the upward propagation of planetary scale Rossby waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere, the causes of the accompanying tropospheric circulation anomalies remain uncertain. To highlight the details of stratosphere troposphere dynamic coupling during the onset of SVW events, this study identifies SVW events using temporal vortex evolution and performs composite budget analyses of zonal wind tendency in the Transformed Eulerian Mean framework on daily time scales. The time evolution of zonal wind anomalies shows a near-instantaneous vertical coupling in a time scale of a few days. No time-lagged downward coupling is observed during the onset of the SVW events although the resulting anomalies persist for up to a month after the onset. The synchronized zonal wind changes between the stratosphere and troposphere are caused by anomalous upward and poleward propagation of zonal wave-number-one and two waves, with tropospheric changes dominated by the latter. It is further found that while wave-number-one disturbances have no preferable geographical distributions during the onset of the SVW events, wave-number-two disturbances highly project onto the stationary waves in most cases. This results in a constructive interference that systematically modulates zonal-mean flow.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".