Global glacier volume projections for the 21st century including the dynamical response to changes in climate
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The total ice volume contained in glaciers is small compared to the volume of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. However, glaciers respond much faster to a changing climate and therefore increased runoff from glaciers is expected to contribute significantly to sea-level rise in the 21st century. Estimates of the global contribution of glaciers to sea-level rise are often based on modelling changes in the surface mass balance, while changes in glacier size are accounted for with volume-area scaling. The models are calibrated with mass balance measurements, which are biased to small glaciers in regions like Central Europe and Scandinavia, containing a minimal fraction of the total ice volume stored in glaciers. Consequently, these models provide highly uncertain glacier volume projections for the regions containing most of the ice volume (e.g. Arctic Canada, Alaska, Himalaya). We present an alternative approach, with a focus on the dynamical glacier response to changes in climate. Glacier volume projections are performed with a one-dimensional ice-flow model, coupled to a simple surface mass balance model. The surface mass balance model uses monthly values of air temperature and precipitation as input and separately calculates the contributions of net solar radiation and other fluxes to the energy balance. The coupled model is applied to synthetic glaciers with a mass balance profile and geometry based on large glaciers in different regions. By forcing the model with projected 21st century changes in air temperature, precipitation and incoming solar radiation, we obtain new estimates of volume changes in glacierized regions around the globe.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".