Regional effects of alternative climate change and management scenarios on timber production, economic profitability, and carbon stocks in Norway spruce forests in Finland
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We studied regional effects of alternative climate change and management scenarios on timber production, its economic profitability (net present value (NPV), with 2% interest rate), and carbon stocks over a 90 year simulation period in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests located in southern, central, and northern Finland. We also compared the results of optimised management plans (maximizing incomes) and fixed management scenarios. Business as usual (BAU) management recommendations were used as the basis for alternative management scenarios. The forest ecosystem model SIMA together with a forest optimisation tool was employed. To consider the uncertainties related to climate change, we applied two climate change scenarios (SRES B1 and SRES A2) in addition to the current climate. Results showed that timber production, NPV, and carbon stocks of forests would reduce in southern Finland, opposite to northern Finland, especially under the strong climate change scenario (SRES A2) compared with the current climate. In central Finland, climate change would have little effect. The use of optimised management plans also resulted in higher timber yield, NPV, and carbon stock of forests compared with the use of a single management scenario, regardless of forest region and climate scenario applied. In the future, we may need to modify the current BAU management recommendations to properly adapt to the changing climatic conditions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".