Population Aging and Demographic Disequilibrium in Quebec, 2001-2021/vieillissement De la Population et Desequilibres Demographiques Au Quebec, 2001-2021
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract There are three characteristics of aging in the population of Quebec: the phenomena is relatively recent because it dates from 1970-1980; it is a huge problem--the percentage of persons 65 years and over was 14.1% in 2005 but will represent 21.5% in twenty years; and it varies from one region to another as well within the various regions. We have used the hypothesis Of the reference model of the Institut de la Statistique of Quebec for demographic projections for 2021 using the territorial divisions adopted by the Ministry of Health and Social Services. Based on analysis on the evolution of the total population between 2001 and 2021, we have described three types of regions: those which are growing (seven regions); those losing population (rive regions); and those in transition towards population loss (three regions). The ratio of elderly--65 years and over--to young persons--19 years and under--give us a good idea of the change of the demographic portrait in Quebec. Thus, the regions losing population, and to a lesser extent, those in transition will have a marked demographic disequilibrium in 2021. At the level of the Centres for Health and Social Services (CSSS) and the Local Centres for Community Services (CLS), the aging of the population and the demographic disequilibrium will be even more evident in the areas of Quebec situated at the periphery of the province. We observed a spatial diffusion of these phenomena over time and the presence of clusters in the other regions. In a second part, we discuss briefly the social and economic consequences of these phenomena. Resume Trois traits caracterisent le vieillissement de la population au Quebec : son apparition relativement recente-dans les annees 1970-1980; son ampleur--le pourcentage des 65 ans et plus etait de 1 4.1% en 2005, vingt ans plus tard il sera de 21,5%; et sa variation geographique. Nous avons retenu les hypotheses du modele de reference de l'Institut de la Statistique du Quebec pour etablir les projections demographiques en 2021 selon les decoupages territoriaux du Ministere de la Sante et des Services Sociaux. L'evolution de la population totale entre 2001 et 2021 nous a permis de distinguer trois types de regions : celles en croissance (sept regions), celles en decroissance (cinq regions), celles en transition vers la decroissance (trois regions). Le rapport vieux--65 ans et plus /jeunes--19 ans et moins--fournit une bonne idee du changement du portrait demographique du Quebec. Ainsi, les regions en decroissance et a moindre egard les regions en transition vers une decroissance auront un desequilibre demographique tres prononce en 2021. A l'echelle des Centres de Sante et des Services Sociaux et des Centres locaux de services communautaires, les phenomenes du vieillissement de la population et des desequilibres demographiques sont encore plus prononces surtout pour les territoires situes en regions peripheriques. Dans une demiere partie, nous presentons brievement les consequences de ces phenomenes. ********** En geographie du vieillissement des populations, nous pouvons differencier trois approches (Thouez 2001). La premiere, empirique, s'appuie sur la demographie et la geographie des populations pour decrire les variations geographiques du vieillissement des populations selon differentes echelles et pour analyser les causes et consequences de ce phenomene (p. ex. Warner 1987). La seconde, humaniste, adopte l'analyse qualitative et les techniques associees dont celle de l'entretien pour comprendre les dimensions sociales, psychologiques, economiques de la vieillesse, pour concilier aine et contexte (p. ex. Thouez et Seguin 1982a, 1982b; Thouez 1983). La troisieme approche decoule d'une serie de questions soulevees par les gerontologistes et les geographes sociaux comme l'agisme, la construction sociale du vieillissement, la feminisation des societes vieillissantes, la securite publique et le soutien a domicile (Veron et al 2004). …
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".