Dynamic trophic linkages in a large estuarine system — support for supply-driven dietary changes using delta generalized additive mixed models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Trophic dynamics within aquatic systems are a predominant regulator of fish production and an important consideration for implementing ecosystem approaches to fisheries management. We analyzed 10 years of fish diet data from Chesapeake Bay, USA, to (1) evaluate the effects of environmental variables on trophic interactions of 12 common predatory fishes, (2) infer dynamics of four key prey groups (mysids, bay anchovy, bivalves, and polychaetes), and (3) evaluate whether interannual dietary trends were coherent among predators and regulated by prey availability. Based on delta generalized additive mixed models (delta-GAMMs), predator length was the most important covariate in modeling prey consumption. When latitude, temperature, and depth effects were statistically significant, the effects of each variable were largely similar across predators for a given prey. Annual patterns of mysid and bivalve consumption each showed a single, dramatic peak shared by multiple predators with varied feeding preferences and distributional characteristics, but annual trends were not correlated with available survey-based measures of prey availability, likely due to methodological differences. Overall, the coherence in consumption patterns across predators was consistent with supply-driven dynamics controlled by regional and annual changes in prey availability. Also, the novel application of delta-GAMMs to fish diet data was useful in characterizing the dynamics of poorly sampled prey groups and the trophic interactions for ubiquitous species from the Northwest Atlantic Ocean.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".