A Geosimulation Approach for Data Scarce Environments: Modeling Dynamics of Forest Insect Infestation across Different Landscapes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Insect infestation behaves as a complex system, characterized by non-linear spatial dynamics and emergent patterns that evolve from smaller to larger spatial scales. The emerald ash borer (EAB) is an invasive species that has infested and killed millions of ash trees across North America. Existing EAB models use traditional statistical approaches that often cannot address the spatiotemporal complexity emerging from EAB infestation processes. Moreover, these studies of insect infestation are limited by a lack of sufficient time series data. The objective of this study is to develop a geosimulation approach to overcome the challenge of data scarcity and represent EAB infestation at a regional scale. Geographic information systems (GIS), multi-criteria evaluation (MCE), and cellular automata (CA) are used to model EAB spread across different hypothetical landscape types. Simulation results represent EAB propagation and indicate different dynamics of spread for each landscape. Urban environments are identified as being at the greatest risk to the infestation. The proposed approach offers a theoretical framework and a modeling tool to represent the propagation of EAB infestation that can be applied with real geospatial datasets and potentially used in forest management strategies.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".