Diagnostic study of hurricane asymmetries using Empirical Normal Modes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Despite the fact that asymmetries in hurricanes, such as spiral rainbands, polygonal eyewalls and mesovortices, have long been observed in radar imagery, many aspects of their dynamics still remain unsolved, particularly in the formation of the secondary eyewall. To fill this gap, a simple 2D barotropic "dry" model and the high-resolution PSU-NCAR non-hydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5) are used to study hurricane asymmetries. The Empirical Normal Mode (ENM) and the newly developed Space-Time Empirical Normal Mode (ST-ENM) techniques, together with Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux calculations, are used to extract wave modes from the model generated datasets to investigate their impact on the changes in the structure and intensity of the simulated hurricanes. From the ENM diagnostics of the 2D simulations, it is shown how an incipient storm described by a vortex monopole intensifies by "inviscid damping" of a "discrete-like" vortex Rossby wave (VRW) or quasimode. The critical radius, the structure, and the propagating properties of the quasimode are found to be consistent with predictions of the linear eigenmode analysis of small perturbations. The fastest growing wavenumber-4 unstable VRW modes of a vortex ring reminiscent of a mature hurricane are extracted and their relation with the polygonal eyewalls, mesovortices, and the asymmetric eyewall contraction established. When asymmetric disturbances are placed outside a strong vortex ring with a large vorticity skirt they relax to form concentric rings of enhanced vorticity that contain a secondary wind maximum. The role of internal dynamics on Concentric Eyewall Genesis (CEG) is further evaluated using the full physics MM5
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".