Using Viral Dynamics to Connect Clinical Markers of Disease Progression to Sequence Evolution during HIV Infection
Bibliographic record
Abstract
HIV-1 remains a global health challenge, with over 35 million people infected. The high rates of turnover and evolutionary adaptability exhibited by HIV-1 pose a particular challenge to HIV-1 vaccine development. We developed a dynamic model of HIV-1 infection that uses equilibration, adaptation, and inheritance to model the initial infection and successive generations of viral lineages. The model allows viruses to generate new lineages in proportion to their viral load. These lineages compete for immune cells to infect. We use this model to demonstrate how viruses with a sufficiently high mutation rate could overcome the immune system, even when most changes are expected to be detrimental to viral fitness. We have calibrated our model to match averages of CD4+ T cells/mm^3 and HIV-1 RNA/ml derived from 91 HIV-infected individuals studied longitudinally during various disease stages. We also explore the use of phylogenies to validate the underlying composition of viral load.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".