The expansion of brown rot disease throughout Bolivia: possible role of climate change
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Bacterial wilt is a devastating plant disease caused by the bacterial pathogen Ralstonia solanacearum species complex and affects different crops. Bacterial wilt infecting potato is also known as brown rot (BR) and is responsible for significant economic losses in potato production, especially in developing countries. In Bolivia, BR affects up to 75% of the potato crop in areas with high incidence and 100% of stored potatoes. The disease has disseminated since its introduction to the country in the mid-1980s mostly through contaminated seed tubers. To avoid this, local farmers multiply seed tubers in highlands because the strain infecting potatoes cannot survive near-freezing temperatures that are typical in the high mountains. Past disease surveys have shown an increase in seed tubers with latent infection in areas at altitudes lower than 3000 m a.s.l. Since global warming is increasing in the Andes Mountains, in this work, we explored the incidence of BR in areas at altitudes above 3000 m a.s.l. Results showed BR presence in the majority of these areas, suggesting a correlation between the increase in disease incidence and the increase in temperature and the number of irregular weather events resulting from climate change. However, it cannot be excluded that the increasing availability of latently infected seed tubers has boosted the spread of BR.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".