Younger Age Predicts Failure to Achieve Viral Suppression and Virologic Rebound Among HIV-1-Infected Persons in Serodiscordant Partnerships
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) markedly reduces the risk of HIV-1 transmission in serodiscordant partnerships. We previously found that younger age and higher CD4 counts were associated with delayed initiation of ART by HIV-1-infected partners in serodiscordant partnerships. Among those initiating ART, we sought to explore whether those same factors were associated with failure to achieve viral suppression. METHODS: In a prospective study of HIV-1-infected persons who had a known heterosexual HIV-1-uninfected partner in Kenya and Uganda [Partners Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) Study], we used Cox proportional hazards regression to evaluate correlates of viral nonsuppression (HIV-1 RNA >80 copies/ml). RESULTS: Of 1,035 HIV-1-infected participants initiating ART, 867 (84%) achieved viral suppression: 77% by 6 months and 86% by 12 months. Younger age [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.05 for every 5 years younger; p = .006], lower pretreatment CD4 count (aHR 1.26; p = .009 for ≤250 compared with >250 cells/μl), and higher pretreatment HIV-1 RNA quantity (aHR 1.21 per log10; p < .001) independently predicted failure to achieve viral suppression. Following initial viral suppression, 8.8% (76/867) experienced virologic rebound (HIV-1 RNA >200 copies/ml): 6.3% and 11.5% by 6 and 12 months after initial suppression, respectively. Age was the only factor associated with increased risk of virologic rebound (aHR 1.33 for every 5 years younger; p = .005). CONCLUSIONS: For HIV-1-infected persons in serodiscordant couples, younger age was associated with delayed ART initiation, failure to achieve viral suppression, and increased risk of virologic rebound. Motivating ART initiation and early adherence is a key to achieving and sustaining viral suppression.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it