The impact of return migration on the Mexican labor market
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract: Mexican return migration has been stable until 2012, while migration flows to the USA have fallen substantially between 2005 and 2012; the changes in the Mexican migration flows have affected the supply side of the Mexican labor market. The paper analyses the potential effects of the return migration on the Mexican labor market. According to the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE), return migrants to Mexico started to significantly increase since the third quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2009, and after that the number of returned migrants started to slightly decline until the second quarter 2013. Considering the availability of data an empirical econometric model is established including the unemployment rate as dependent variable and the real GDP and socioeconomic characteristics of migrants as explanatory variables. The results showed that changes in return migration have a positive impact in changes in the unemployment rate. On the other hand, the real GDP and migration to the USA have had a negative impact on the unemployment rate of Mexico. Given the increase of unemployment reported in ENOE, the results suggest that the inadequate capacity of the Mexican economy to absorb the return migration workers is limited. Resumen: Desde el 2012, la migración de retorno de México se ha estabilizado mientras que los flujos de trabadores migrantes se ha reducido substancialmente. En este contexto, el presente trabajo analiza los efectos de la migración mexicana de retorno en el mercado laboral en México, en particular, en la tasa de desempleo. De acuerdo a la Encuesta Nacional de Ocupación y Empleo (ENOE), la cantidad de migrantes de retorno hacia México se incrementó entre el tercer trimestre e 2005 y el tercer trimestre de 2009 y, posteriormente, el número de migrantes retornados empezó a declinar ligeramente hasta el 2013. Con base en la disponibilidad de información estadística de la ENOE se realizó una regresión de mínimos cuadrados para analizar el efecto de los cambios del PIB real y los cambios en los flujos migratorios de trabajadores mexicanos a los EUA en los cambios de la tasa de desempleo en México. Los resultados corroboran que los cambios en la migración de retorno tienen un impacto positivo en la tasa de desempleo de México. Por otra parte, el PIB real y la migración de trabajadores mexicanos tienen un impacto negativo en el desempleo laboral de México. Por tanto, considerando que la ENOE ha mostrado un incremento de la tasa de desempleo de México, los resultados sugieren la poca capacidad de la economía mexicana para absorber los migrantes de retorno y la migración declinante de trabajadores mexicanos hacia los EUA.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".