Where, how fast, and why arctic permafrost coasts undergo coastal erosion?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Permafrost coasts represent 34 % of the global coastline and are likely to become one of the most impacted environments of the Earth under changing climate conditions. The lengthening of the open-water season and the increasing open-water area, the warming of permafrost, the increasing occurrence of coastal thermokarst, and the increase in sea surface temperatures are all thought to impact the pace of coastal erosion. In particular, storms are predicted to hit the coasts later in the fall season. These storms are thought to bear staggering threats to the coasts in the form of destruction of community and industry infrastructure as well as dramatic changes in sedi-ment and nutrient pathways in the nearshore zone. Alas, there is little data available to provide a cir-cumarctic picture of coastal erosion and to indicate erosion trends. Indeed, arctic coasts remain largely unknown and unexplored, which puts current adap-tation and mitigation strategies in northern commu-nities into jeopardy.In this presentation, we present the latest results from the Arctic Coastal Dynamics project, initiated by the International Permafrost Association and the International Arctic Science Committee in 1999. A classification, built to consistently describe the geo-morphological characteristics and processes ob-served at the coast along the arctic rim, indicates that the geomorphological setting of arctic coasts is highly spatially variable. This dataset highlights the major influence of this setting on the erosion rates observed and the in fine difficulty in providing sta-tistics at the global level. It shows, however that some striking regional traits can be deduced from the dataset. Alaskan and Canadian coasts in the Beaufort Sea are characterized by larger ground ice contents but also by much smaller cliff heights than other arctic coasts. Overall it shows that circumpolar coastal erosion is on average 0.5 m/yr, but again with strong differences between arctic regions, with rates close to 10 m/yr in some areas and stable coasts in others. A second outcome of the ACD project is a recent as-sessment of erosion rates and their evolution throughout the second half of the twentieth century and the beginning of the twenty-first century. Despite the recent media attention to coastal erosion, reliable long-term datasets asserting an increase in coastal erosion are scarce in the Arctic. This presen-tation will present the latest datasets published in the literature and compare their spatial coverage to the extent of permafrost coasts at the arctic scale.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".