Exchange Rate Volatility and other Determinants of Hysteresis in Exports - Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper surveys export hysteresis on a micro (firm) level and an aggregate level if sunk adjustment costs matter for export market entry and exit decisions. Furthermore, the impacts of option-to-wait effects due to uncertainty on the aggregation procedure are illustrated. It then illustrates the so-called play-algorithm which allows an estimation of the aggregate/macro hysteresis loop taking into account the variable option value effects resulting from on changing volatility of exchange rates. The play regression model is then applied to empirical export equations (Euro Area member countries to the United States). We do not confine ourselves to the aggregate macro level but also take a sectoral/branch perspective. Analyzing one of the largest export destinations outside the Eurozone, the US, to which 12% of total EA exports were directed in 2012, we find hysteretic effects in many cases of EA member countries’ exports. However, not every increase or decrease of the exchange rate will, automatically, lead to positive or negative reactions of the volume of exports. But a large appreciation of the euro means passing the play-area (i.e. a kind of 'pain-threshold') and results in a strong reaction of exports, et vice versa.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it