Epidemic History and Iatrogenic Transmission of Blood-borne Viruses in Mid-20th Century Kinshasa
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) pandemic was ignited in Léopoldville (now known as Kinshasa), in the former Belgian Congo. Factors that jump-started its early expansion remain unclear. Nonlethal hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human T-cell lymphotropic virus (HTLV-1) can be used to investigate past iatrogenic transmission. METHODS: We undertook a cross-sectional study of elderly inhabitants of Kinshasa, with serological assays, amplification, and sequencing. Risk factors were assessed through logistic regression. Phylogenetic methods reconstructed the genetic history of HCV. RESULTS: A total of 217 of 839 participants (25.9%) were HCV seropositive; 26 (3.1%) were HTLV-1-seropositive. Amplification products were obtained from 118 HCV-seropositive participants; subtypes 4k (in 47 participants) and 4r (in 38) were most common. Independent risk factors for HCV subtype 4r seropositivity were intramuscular tuberculosis therapy, intravenous injections at hospital A, intravenous injections before 1960, and injections at a colonial-era venereology clinic. Intravenous injections at hospital B and antimalarials were associated with HCV subtype 4k seropositivity. Risk factors for HTLV-1 seropositivity included intravenous injections at hospitals C or D and transfusions. Evolutionary analysis of viral sequences revealed independent exponential amplification of HCV subtypes 4r and 4k from the 1950s onward. CONCLUSIONS: Iatrogenic transmission of HCV and HTLV-1 occurred in mid-20th century Kinshasa, at the same time and place HIV-1 emerged. Iatrogenic routes may have contributed to the early establishment of the pandemic.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".