Using vital statistics and core-habitat maps to manage critically endangered orchids in the Western Australian wheatbelt
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Vital-statistics data concerning population viability were gathered for four of the rarest orchids in Western Australia using surveys to define population sizes and habitat areas and annual measurements of plant demographics. These orchids were Caladenia melanema, C. graniticola, C. williamsiae and Drakaea isolata from the wheatbelt of Western Australia. This agricultural area has a Mediterranean climate with unreliable rainfall, and is >80% cleared of native vegetation. Surveys with 10–30 volunteers increased population-size estimates by up to 10 times and provided spatial data to define core habitat areas. These areas included most of the individuals of a species, but were only 2–10 ha in size. Within these areas, orchids were often highly aggregated in patches a few metres wide, potentially resulting in a high degree of intraspecific competition. Vital statistics were obtained using 4-m wide and 30–50-m-long transects to measure rates of emergence, flowering, grazing and seed-set for each orchid. Plants emerging at the same position in different years were considered to be the same individual, but most emerged in new positions. Many plants emerged just once in 4 years, and 2–3 years of dormancy was common. Emergence frequencies were used to provide estimates of population sizes that were two or three times larger than suggested by data from a single year. Seed production was typically very low. Grazing by kangaroos and rabbits was most severe for C. melanema, but was greatly reduced by fencing. Severe drought prevented flowering of C. graniticola in the driest year, whereas other species were more resilient. These orchids are likely to persist as long as there are some years where rainfall is sufficient for flowering and seed set followed by a year with adequate rain for seed germination. Populations of all these orchids were stable or increasing, but they are still at high risk of extinction because of the impacts of increasing soil salinity or fire on their habitats. These species are unlikely to spread elsewhere in the highly cleared and fragmented wheatbelt. Intervention by hand-pollination, grazing protection and translocation to new locations is required to mitigate these risks. Results were summarised in vital statistics report cards with thresholds set to inform conservation management for these species. Core habitat maps and vital-statistics report cards should also be valuable new tools for terrestrial-orchid conservation in other biomes.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it