Stability and change in autism spectrum disorder diagnosis from age 3 to middle childhood in a high-risk sibling cohort
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Considerable evidence on autism spectrum disorder emergence comes from longitudinal high-risk samples (i.e. younger siblings of children with autism spectrum disorder). Diagnostic stability to age 3 is very good when diagnosed as early as 18-24 months, but sensitivity is weaker, and relatively little is known beyond toddlerhood. We examined stability and change in blinded, clinical best-estimate diagnosis from age 3 to middle childhood (mean age = 9.5 years) in 67 high-risk siblings enrolled in infancy. Good agreement emerged for clinical best-estimate diagnoses (89.6% overall; kappa = 0.76, p < 0.001, 95% confidence interval = 0.59-0.93). At age 3, 18 cases (26.9%) were classified with "autism spectrum disorder": 17 retained their autism spectrum disorder diagnosis (94.4%; 13 boys, 4 girls) and 1 no longer met autism spectrum disorder criteria at follow-up. Among "non-autism spectrum disorder" cases at age 3, 43/49 remained non-autism spectrum disorder at follow-up (87.8%; 22 boys, 21 girls) and 6/49 met lower autism symptomatology criteria ("Later-Diagnosed"; 3 boys, 3 girls). Later-diagnosed cases had significantly lower autism spectrum disorder symptomatology and higher receptive language at age 3 and trends toward lower autism symptoms and higher cognitive abilities at follow-up. Emerging developmental concerns were noted in all later-diagnosed cases, by age 3 or 5. High-risk children need to be followed up into middle childhood, particularly when showing differences in autism-related domains.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it