A Regional Approach to Market Monitoring in the West
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Market monitoring involves the systematic analysis of pricesand behavior in wholesale power markets to determine when and whetherpotentially anti-competitive behavior is occurring. Regional TransmissionOrganizations (RTOs) typically have a market monitoring function. Becausethe West does not have active RTOs outside of California, it does nothave the market monitoring that RTOs have. In addition, because the Westoutside of California does not have RTOs that perform centralized unitcommitment and dispatch, the rich data that are typically available tomarket monitors in RTO markets are not available in the West outside ofCalifornia. This paper examines the feasibility of market monitoring inthe West outside of California given readily available data. We developsimple econometric models of wholesale power prices in the West thatmight be used for market monitoring. In addition, we examine whetherproduction cost simulations that have been developed for long-runplanning might be useful for market monitoring. We find that simpleeconometric models go a long ways towards explaining wholesale powerprices in the West and might be used to identify potentially anomalousprices. In contrast, we find that the simulated prices from a specificset of production cost simulations exhibit characteristics that aresufficiently different from observed prices that we question theirusefulness for explaining price formation in the West and hence theirusefulness as a market monitoring tool.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it