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Record W2295850997 · doi:10.5555/1480-6800.18.1.92

Oman: Transitioning from Sultan Qaboos

2015· article· en· W2295850997 on OpenAlex
Alasdair Drysdale

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

venuePublished in a venue whose home country is Canada.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueArab world geographer · 2015
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicLeadership, Behavior, and Decision-Making Studies
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsPoliticsOptimismGovernment (linguistics)PaceFellPolitical scienceHistoryPsychologyMedicineLawGeographyCartographySocial psychologyPhilosophy

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

In 1995, no doubt anticipating this special issue of AWG, the Omani government kindly drafted Oman Vision 2020. Alas, this document is mostly an irrelevant testament to the optimism of its authors and a reminder that reality will always intrude. In fact, Oman fell so far short of its goals for 2020 that it is currently drafting a new strategy, Oman Vision 2040 (Valeri 2015). As Yogi Berra reputedly said, “It is tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” To do so in the Middle East, where the pace of political change has been particularly rapid in the past few years, is arguably even more perilous, whether the horizon is 2020, 2030, or next week. Nevertheless, there seems to be broad consensus about the nature of the challenges confronting Oman in the near future, and how the sultanate looks in 2020 or 2030 will largely be determined by how successfully these challenges are addressed. Most pressing is the issue of who will succeed the 74-year-old Sultan Qaboos, who has ruled Oman almost single-handedly since 1970 (Nereim 2014). In 2014, he spent several months in Germany receiving medical treatment for what is widely believed to be colon cancer. In November, looking emaciated, he announced to the nation that he would not attend Omani National Day celebrations, explaining his absence “for reasons you all know” (Nereim 2014). It is difficult to overstate the degree to which Oman’s entire political system has been personalized and focused on the sultan for the past four decades. Unfortunately he has no brothers, no sons, and no designated heir. According to Omani Basic Law, a royal family council must select a successor within three days of Sultan Qaboos’s death. If they are unable to do so, an envelope containing the sultan’s preferred choice will be opened. Although the transition will most likely be peaceful, many Omanis fear that the process, and the uncertainly surrounding it, could trigger infighting within the royal family. In the worst (but unlikely) scenario, any succession dispute could in turn provide an opening for the resurgence of long-suppressed tribal feuds and regional rivalries, notably in Dhofar, where a rebellion raged for 13 years before 1975, and in the interior, where Ibadi Muslims lived

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.204
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.003
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.002

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.145
GPT teacher head0.373
Teacher spread0.228 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it