Bibliographic record
Abstract
President of the Royal Society of London, said some 10 years ago "mankind has a 50/50 chance to survive the 21st century".I am not sure if, in the light of what is happening now, we should not revise that deadline and possibly shorten it.The perfect storm of world catastrophe is unfolding.In Europe we are slowly being engulfed in it all.For the last 20 years the Horn of Africa has experienced increasing poverty because of poor governance, constant civil wars, increasing drought, and finally large movements of people.For the last five years there has been a series of droughts in Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, parts of Kenya.That drought has mean that there is less water, less food can grow, there is less for the animals of nomadic people to eat, less water for people in the cities to consume.The drought has spread all over the Middle East.Saudi Arabia a decade ago made it illegal to use water for irrigation; you can use water from local aquifers for human use only.This has encouraged the Saudis the Qataris, the Omanis, to invest in lands in other parts of the world, primarily in Africa.Even weaker people in those lands have been expropriated from their traditional lands.Now we have seen the emergence of ISIS.We are all concentrating on the fact that they are all religious fanatics."If only they were like the less fanatic Moslems from other parts of the world, we would all be OK".But we forgot that the fight is only partially one of religion.Religion has become the language used to make the fight seem moral.But more fundamentally it is an explosion against the most basic forms of injustice perpetrated by their rulers whom we generally support.In fact, Saudi Arabia, a beloved ally of ours, is doing nothing really very different to what ISIS is doing.But we fight ISIS and do not even start to condemn Saudi Arabia, which has beheaded more people this year than ISIS has.But their leadership has managed to divert attention to ISIS and export terrorism.The drought has spread from the Arabian Peninsula further north.Iraq, Jordan, Israel, Lebanon all have had ever poorer harvest because there is no water.Rural people move into the cities to escape the drought and the lack of food.And then more conflict arise.Their miserable regimes, most of them, fight them if they rebel against the injustices and increasing poverty.So, they escape.They come to the shores of Europe.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".