What Changes Deflationary Expectations? Evidence from Japanese Household-level Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Japanese economy has suffered from deflation since the mid-1990s. Despite the importance of overcoming deflation for policymakers and academics in Japan, there has been no recent research on what changes deflationary expectations in Japan. This study emphasizes fact-finding from a unique and rich quarterly household-level data set to estimate average price expectations, to examine what changes price expectations, and to look at how changes in price expectations affect household consumption. Our empirical estimates indicate that price expectations ranges from minus 0.5 percent to zero percent for the period from 2001 to2003 in Japan, with the exception of a big hike in the first quarter of 2003. Price expectations are dependent on current price movements and lagged expectations. Awareness of monetary policy announcements does not largely change price expectations in Japan, since a series of quantitative easing caused revision of price expectations only for small portion, i.e., 5-10% of people surveyed. The jump in the first quarter of 2003 was caused by the Iraq war. We also confirm that deflationary expectations discourage household consumption, mainly durables, through postponing the timing of purchases. Our findings suggest that the deflationary expectations should be upwardly revised to stimulate Japanese household consumption. However, a series of quantitative easing were not very much effective to alter the expectations of all households; rather, only the Iraq war was an influential impact to change price expectations. Note that the degree of revision for those who revised expectations was similar order among those events examined in this study, but that the share of households affected is very much different. Keeping this in mind, the monetary authorities should implement quantitative easing in more aggressive and understandable ways to change deflationary expectations.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.022 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".