Importance of combined winter and summer Arctic Oscillation (AO) on September sea ice extent
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We examine the influence of winter and summer Arctic Oscillation (AO) on variations in the September Arctic sea ice extent (SIE). The winter and summer atmospheric patterns associated with year-to-year variations and detrended September SIE correlate with the positive winter AO and the negative summer AO, respectively. However, the interannual variations of winter and summer AO indices after 2007 are more weakly connected with year-to-year variations in the September SIE. Since 2007, the surface air temperatures over the Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian Seas are related to the interannual variations of the September SIE. Recent summer atmospheric patterns associated with the September SIE correlate with the summer AO pattern, but the summer anticyclonic circulation over the Arctic favours the recent low September SIE more than the seesaw pattern between mid- and high- latitudes. Recent winters' positive AO have not contributed to the recent low September SIE because winter anticyclonic circulation over northern Eurasia is more directly connected with recent September SIE.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".