Dimension reduction for conditional variance in regressions
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Both the conditional mean and variance in regressions with high di- mensional predictors are of importance in modeling. In this paper, we investigate estimation of the conditional variance. To attack the curse of dimensionality, we introduce a notion of central variance subspace (CVS) to capture the information contained in the conditional variance. To estimate the CVS, the impact from the conditional mean needs to be fully removed. To this end, a three-step procedure is proposed: Estimating exhaustively the CMS by an outer product gradient (OPG) method; estimating consistently the structural dimension of the CMS by a modi- fied Bayesian information criterion (BIC); and estimating the conditional mean by a kernel smoother. After removing the conditional mean from the response, we sug- gest a squared residuals-based OPG method to identify the CVS. The asymptotic normality of candidate matrices, and hence of corresponding eigenvalues and eigen- vectors, is obtained. Illustrative examples from simulation studies and a dataset are presented to assess the finite sample performance of the theoretical results.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it