The Effect of Error-in-Confounders on the Estimation of the Causal Parameter When Using Marginal Structural Models and Inverse Probability-of-Treatment Weights: A Simulation Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We performed an empirical study to evaluate the effect of mismeasured continuous confounders on the estimation of the causal parameter when using marginal structural models and inverse probability-of-treatment weighting. By executing an extensive simulation using 500 randomly generated parameter value combinations within a defined space, we observed the well-understood effects of attenuation and augmentation, and two unanticipated effects: null effects and sign reversals. We implemented a secondary empirical study to further investigate the sign reversal effect. We use the results of our study to identify conceptual similarities between the analytic and empirical results for multivariable linear and logistic regression, and our empirical results. Through this synthesis, we have been able to suggest feasible directions of research as well as outline the form of expected results.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".