Musculoskeletal Ultrasonography in Healthy Subjects and Ultrasound Criteria for Early Arthritis (The ESPOIR Cohort)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To confirm the occurrence of bone erosions and synovitis in healthy subjects detectable by ultrasound (US) and to establish US criteria for early arthritis. METHODS: Our study involved 127 healthy subjects matched with a cohort of patients with early arthritis (the ESPOIR cohort). The second and fifth metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joints and the fifth metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joint of both hands and feet were assessed with US to detect bone erosion; and the second, third, fourth, and fifth MCP and the fifth MTP were evaluated for synovial thickening in B-mode US and synovial vascularity in power Doppler. Bone erosion and synovitis were defined according to the Outcome Measures in Rheumatology Clinical Trials consensus. RESULTS: Bone erosion and grade 2-3 synovial thickening in B-mode were detected in 11% and 9% of healthy subjects. To consider the diagnosis of early arthritis, a cutoff at 1 case of synovial thickening in B-mode enabled discrimination between patients with early arthritis and healthy subjects, with a good sensitivity of 74.8% (95% CI 67.2%-82.3%) and a high specificity of 90.5% (95% CI 85.4%-95.6%). If higher specificity is required to confirm the diagnosis of early arthritis, cutoff at 2 cases of synovial thickening in B-mode or at 2 cases of bone erosion gave optimal results, with specificity of 98.4% (95% CI 96.2%-100%) and 100%, respectively, and lower sensitivity of 59.8% (95% CI 51.2%-68.3%) and 17% (95% CI 10.5%-23.5%) (area under the curve = 0.85 for synovitis and 0.63 for bone erosion). Neither the combination of power Doppler signal plus bone erosion, nor bone erosions plus synovial thickening on the same joint, were seen in healthy subjects. CONCLUSION: A single case of bone erosion or synovial thickening in B-mode is common in healthy subjects. However, more than 1 case of synovial thickening in B-mode or bone erosion is a strong argument for the diagnosis of early inflammatory arthritis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".